In the couple of weeks leading up to COP26, scientists continued to sound the alarm bell over the perilous state of the climate. The World Meteorological Organization in the latest edition of its Greenhouse Gas Bulletin showed that despite a brief letup over the early phase of the coronavirus pandemic, the abundance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had once more reached a record high.
With the annual rate of increase now exceeding the average from between 2011 and 2020, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached 413.2 parts per million last year, which amounts to 149 percent of the pre-industrial level. Methane concentration stood at 262 percent and nitrous oxide concentration at 123 percent of their pre-industrial levels, which the bulletin defines as the year 1750 around the time ‘when human activities started disrupting Earth’s natural equilibrium’.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, the warming effect of long-lived greenhouse gases increased by 47 percent between 1990 and 2020, with carbon dioxide alone accounting for around 80 percent of the increase. And the organisation warned that as such gases linger in the atmosphere, the ability of land ecosystems and the oceans to act as sinks is likely to become less effective, reducing our natural buffer against temperature rises.
Hot on the heels of the Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, the United Nations Emissions Gap Report for 2021 argued that current climate commitments put the world on course for a global temperature rise of 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Such an outcome would far exceed the goals set out by the Paris climate agreement, which aimed to keep the global temperature rise to ‘well below’ 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, while pledging to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit the temperature rise to just 1.5 degrees.
Noting that the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius will only be achieved if the world manages to halve annual greenhouse gas emissions in the next eight years, the Emissions Gap Report instead called for effective net-zero emissions pledges, which might limit the warming to 2.2 degrees Celsius, closer at least to the baseline which was established in Paris. The Emissions Gap Report also advocated for tighter regulations around carbon offsetting markets.
Finally as the climate conference got underway, the World Meteorological Organization ramped up the pressure by publicising a preliminary report which indicates that the last seven years are on track to be the warmest on record. As global sea levels rise to new heights and warming threatens our food security and vital ecosystems, the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said:
‘From the ocean depths to mountain tops, from melting glaciers to relentless extreme weather events, ecosystems and communities around the globe are being devastated. COP26 must be a turning point for people and planet.’
The stage then was all set for the highly anticipated summit, with the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference set to be held at the SEC Centre in Glasgow after being postponed by one year. For the fifth major summit since the Paris agreement was reached back in 2015, the expectation was for world leaders to commit to bold new pledges on the environment, bolstering their sometimes lofty rhetoric with clear goals and enhanced funding.
The G20 conference in Rome on the eve of the summit was widely perceived to have fallen short, with a communique which reiterated the stakes but made few firm commitments, as the leaders of major industrialised and developing nations joined their international counterparts after making the short trip north by northwest.
Leaders and delegates from around 200 countries were expected to descend on Glasgow for COP26. As activists made their sometimes arduous journeys by boat, train, or foot, in London protesters from the Pacific Climate Warriors, the Coal Action Network, and Extinction Rebellion laid wreaths in the financial district as part of a ‘climate justice memorial’. Leading the chants was Greta Thunberg, who called on the banking sector to stop funding climate destruction. As he made his way north of the border, the British prime minister Boris Johnson described COP26 as the ‘world’s moment of truth’.
Other voices on the eve of the summit were more sceptical. Alok Sharma, the British politician and serving president of COP26, said that forging an agreement around rules and funding would prove ‘tougher than what we achieved in Paris’, noting that the promise of $100 billion per year to help poorer countries in the fight against climate change was now going to arrive three years late.
Analysts noted the sharp rise in global energy prices, with the scramble for oil and gas threatening to overshadow the aspirations of COP26. And while Russia had drafted a new decarbonisation strategy and Saudi Arabia had pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 as nations updated their pledges ahead of the summit, the Russian plan counted on the capacity of its forests to absorb several billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, while Saudi Arabia refused to specify any slowdown in the lucrative business of oil and gas exports.
On the first day of the summit, a message arrived from Xi Jinping of China, who like Vladimir Putin had declined to attend the event. Xi called for ‘concrete actions’ and fresh innovations in science and technology that might ‘accelerate the green transition’, but from the rapidly developing country which is now the single largest emitter of atmospheric carbon, there was nothing in the way of a new pledge.
Still hoping to build a sense of momentum and generate the sort of publicity which might even amount to goodwill, the first few days of COP26 brought a flurry of promises, some of which veered happily off-script. With presidents and prime ministers present in Glasgow, the first grand announcement of the summit saw more than 100 countries pledge to end deforestation by 2030. The pledge, which includes the traditional holdouts of Brazil and Russia, covers around 85 percent of the world’s forests, and will be backed by almost $20 billion in public and private funds.
Critics pointed to the inadequacy of a similar deal from 2014, when a smaller group of countries signed the New York Declaration on Forests. And even as world leaders attempted to put their best foot forward, the first working day of COP26 was not without rancour, as Joe Biden apologised on behalf of Donald Trump for the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris agreement, politicians continued to throw jabs at China and Russia, and some of the world’s developing nations called for more aid from their wealthier counterparts.
Activists and celebrities attempted to keep the conversation on track. Greta Thunberg and her fellow young advocates Vanessa Nakate, Dominika Lasota, and Mitzi Tan penned an open letter which called on world leaders to face up to the climate emergency. The broadcaster and natural historian David Attenborough urged leaders to be ‘motivated by hope rather than fear’. Even Queen Elizabeth got in on the action, saying that the world must act now ‘for our children and our children’s children’, while Andy Murray, Tom Daley, and Eliud Kipchoge led a video appeal by some of the stars of sport.
As the first minister of Scotland, it was Nicola Sturgeon who met with Thunberg and the activist Vanessa Nakate from Uganda on the opening day of the summit, admitting that their conversation had sometimes been uncomfortable as they pressed for firmer commitments on the climate. But Sturgeon added that:
‘This summit should not feel comfortable for anybody in a position of leadership and responsibility, it should feel bloody uncomfortable, because nobody yet is doing enough.’
From a distance, Vladimir Putin made the case for Russia as one of the world leaders in the decarbonisation process, as he asserted that ‘our country is taking an active and decisive part in international efforts to preserve the climate’. Back inside the SEC Centre in Glasgow, the Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett touted technological solutions, Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece lamented the heatwaves and forest fires which wracked the summer months, and the Indonesian president Joko Widodo portrayed the rainforests and mangroves of his country as ‘critical carbon sinks’.
There were missteps too as Joe Biden fell asleep at the wheel, Boris Johnson received criticism for travelling back to Westminster by private plane, and the Israeli energy minister Karine Elharrar condemned a lack of wheelchair access at the conference centre, finally joining her national and international counterparts one day late.
The second collective announcement arrived on day two of COP26, as the United States and the European Union led more than 100 countries in the direction of a Global Methane Pledge. The pledge aims to limit methane emissions by 30 percent compared with 2020 levels, tackling leaks from oil and gas wells, pipelines, and other fossil fuel infrastructure as a means of curbing the impact of this short-lived but potent gas.
While methane accounts for a much smaller percentage of our greenhouse gas emissions, it has an outsize short-term effect on the climate. Over the first twenty years after a methane molecule reaches the atmosphere, it possesses approximately 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide. Methane therefore sets the pace in the fight against climate change, although the prospects of the initiative were hampered as China, India, Russia, and Australia fail to sign on to the pact.
India still managed to spring the surprise of the opening days of the summit, as the country pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2070. The headline pledge was one of five commitments described by Narendra Modi as ‘panchamrit’, an offering of five foods in Hindu worship, and though the timeline may have seemed tardy, it was still cheered by scientists as the country’s first major climate announcement since signing on to the Paris agreement.
In fact the pledge from India spurred the University of Melbourne and the International Energy Agency to separately conclude that the baseline goal of less than 2 degrees Celsius in warming was now back within reach. But at the end of the second day of COP26, the major world leaders departed the summit, and delegates and emissaries were left to get down to brass tacks.
Indigenous groups and delegates from poorer countries in the Global South pressed to have their voices heard at the summit. There were fractures, as Indonesia signalled an about-turn over the deforestation pledge. Meanwhile the focus of COP26 turned towards fossil fuel consumption and climate financing, with 40 countries vowing to phase out the use of coal power, and 20 countries pledging to end the financing of fossil fuel projects abroad. The COP26 president Alok Sharma said ‘the end of coal is in sight’, but China and India, which together burn roughly two-thirds of the world’s coal, were both absent from the accords.
Nature was the theme over the first weekend of the summit, and with one million animal and plant species now on the endangered list, countries outlined some of their plans towards sustainable land-use management and greener approaches to agriculture. Outside of the summit, protesters thronged the streets of Glasgow and other major cities worldwide, as COP26 prepared to enter its second week.
That week started with one of the most striking images of the summit, as Simon Kofe, the foreign minister of Tuvalu, stood knee-deep in seawater while delivering a virtual presentation to show how Pacific Island nations are already bearing the brunt of climate change. Barack Obama arrived at the SEC Centre with a conciliatory message for young people, before speaking to the leaders of several island nations and meeting with young advocates to discuss some of the hard work ahead.
Fumio Kishida of Japan had pledged $10 billion to support zero emissions across Asia, but with the $100 billion for developing nations still lagging worldwide, the Marshall Islands said that it alone would require ‘tens of billions’ of dollars in assistance to safeguard its people from the impact of rising sea levels. As the second week of COP26 progressed and nations continued to haggle over issues of funding, scepticisim inevitably began to set in.
Contrasting sharply with some of the positivity which followed earlier announcements, now the Climate Action Tracker said that the pledges so far agreed at the summit would still put the world on course for a temperature rise of 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. As the host leader of the summit, Boris Johnson had tried to corral the troops and put on a show of statesmanship, but instead found himself swamped by corruption scandals at home.
Another slither of light arrived in the middle of the week, as the United States and China released a surprise statement which pledged greater cooperation on the climate. Promising ‘enhanced climate actions’ to meet the goals set out in Paris, the Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua said ‘we need to think big and be responsible’, while the United States envoy John Kerry said:
‘The United States and China have no shortage of differences. But on climate, cooperation is the only way to get this job done.’
Still as COP26 entered its final days, the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said that the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius remained ‘on life support’. And as delegates raced to reach a final statement, as usual the sticking points revolved around fossil fuel consumption and climate funding, with disagreements over carbon offsetting markets and the need for a separate fund which would not only help poorer nations adapt to climate change, but address historic and irreparable damage and loss.
To the surprise of no-one, talks stretched into overtime and dragged on into the weekend. Finally on Saturday evening, an agreement was announced after a last-ditch compromise on coal. The Glasgow climate pact was adopted after interventions by China and India which changed language on the ‘phasing out’ of coal to instead suggest a mere ‘phasing down’. While this marked the strongest commitment yet on the fossil fuel from a United Nations climate conference, the summit president Alok Sharma was still tearful as he banged down the gavel, saying:
‘We can now say with credibility that we have kept 1.5 degrees Celsius alive. But its pulse is weak and it will only survive if we keep our promises and translate commitments into rapid action.’
The final text urged the phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, and called on countries to publish new emissions targets on an annual basis, an improvement to the five-year schedule agreed upon in Paris. But following resistance from wealthier nations, there was nothing in the text to address historic losses and damages, with promises for future dialogue drawing a prompt rebuke from nations including Kenya, the Maldives, and Antigua and Barbuda, which chairs the 39-member Alliance of Small Island States.
Critics then decried COP26 as more ‘blah’ and accused leading nations of once more kicking the can, while delegates portrayed the mention of coal and fossil fuels in the final text as an important step forward. Attention will turn swiftly towards next year’s summit in Egypt, where in addition to fresh emissions pledges, countries will be expected to finalise rules around carbon trading and agree enhanced funding for developing nations, as the clock ticks ever more loudly over the shared future of our planet.
