After almost three weeks of football and one week and a half of tennis, competitions have fallen into alignment, and we find ourselves at the quarter-final stage of both Wimbledon and the World Cup. While some of Wimbledon’s ladies have already progressed on into the semi-finals, the gentlemen’s quarter-finals are all scheduled to be played later today, on Centre Court and No. 1 Court; while the World Cup quarter-finals will be played across Friday and Saturday, in Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, BrasĆlia, and Salvador.
The draw for the 2014 Wimbledon men’s quarter-finals is as follows:
Novak Djokovic (Serbia) [Seeded 1] (Ranked 2) vs. Marin Cilic (Croatia) [26] (29)
Andy MurrayĀ (Great Britain) [3] (5) vs. Grigor Dimitrov (Bulgaria)Ā [11] (13)
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Stan Wawrinka (Switzerland) [5] (3) vs. Roger Federer (Switzerland) [4] (4)
Milos Raonic (Canada) [8] (9) vs. Nick Kyrgios (Australia) (Wild Card) (144)
The 2014 World Cup quarter-finals will see:
France (Current FIFA Ranking 17) vs. Germany (2)
Brazil (3) vs. Colombia (8)
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Argentina (5) vs. Belgium (11)
NetherlandsĀ (15)Ā vs. Costa Rica (28)
Now, as I began to put together this post, I hoped to be able to do something remarkable with the two draws: revealingĀ some outstanding coincidence in terms of the rankings or theĀ nationalities involved. Alas, I’m not sure that the details of the two competitions allow this in any meaningful way.
Whereas the Wimbledon singles draws are thoroughly seeded – with thirty-two men and thirty-two women made seeds; with the first round of each draw comprising eight sections, each of which contains one of the top eight seeds; and with each draw being split into top and bottom halves, so that first seed may ultimately meet second seed come the finalĀ – the World Cup is seeded foremost at the group stage. Thus last December, when the draw for the World Cup was made, Brazil – the host nation – plus the top seven teams based on FIFA’s World Rankings were made seeds, and placed separately into each of the eight World Cup groups. The eight seeds were Brazil, then Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, and Switzerland. The groups are then completed based on geography, so that African, South American, Asian, North American, and European sides are evenly distributed. Following the group stages, group winners go on to meet the runners-up from their adjacent group: the winner of Group A plays the runner-up from Group B, the runner-up from Group A plays the winner of Group B, and so on.
What we can say is that, in both sports, the number one ranked entity going into competition – Rafael Nadal in the tennis, Spain in the football – has been prematurely knocked out. Though seeded only second – and perhaps generously, given that since last reaching the Wimbledon final in 2011, he has fallen in the second round,Ā first round, and fourth round of the tournament – Nadal still went into this Wimbledon ranked number one in the world. Spain – on the back of three tournament successes, winning the European Championships in 2008 and 2012, and winning the last World Cup in 2010 – occupied the same position in the latest FIFA World Rankings. Having lost their first two group matches, Spain gained some meagre consolation by beating Australia 3-0 in their final group game, thereby finishing third in their group. Rafa Nadal at least reached the round of 16, before succumbing yesterday to anĀ Australian, the nineteen-year-old Nick Kyrgios, in the surprise of the tournament so far.
In Djokovic, Wawrinka and Murray, Germany, Brazil and Argentina, both competitions still possess numbers two, three and five in the world rankings of their respective sports. While Switzerland were slightly unfortunate to fall to a 1-0 defeat after extra time last night against Argentina, the nation is strongly represented in the men’s tennis quarter-finals, with Wawrinka vs. Federer arguably the match of the round.
Marin Cilic is in the quarter-finals of Wimbledon for the first time, and after an impressive three-set victory over sixth-seed Tomas Berdych in the third round – incidentally, the latest finish to a match ever on an outside court at the championships, coming to a close at 9.38 pm on No. 3 Court last Friday. However, despite a surge in form since returning to the tour at the beginning of the year – after a four-month suspension for taking the banned supplement nikethamide – Cilic is unlikely to pose Djokovic too many problems. Djokovic has reached the quarter-finals with ease, dropping only one set along the way; coming through in three sets in the last round against a Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who looks increasingly like a spent force at the very top of the game.
Increasingly focused, still building his game, and having both dominated opponents and come through a back-and-forth five-setter against Alexandr Dolgopolov in the third round, Grigor Dimitrov should prove a significantly sterner challenge for Andy Murray, who is yet to drop a set in the tournament. A decisive win for Murray still appears the likely outcome; whereas the two matches making up the lower half of the draw are more difficult to judge. Wawrinka and Federer have never faced one another on grass. While Federer holds a 13-2 lead in the record of their head-to-head encounters, Wawrinka won the last match the two played, in the final of the Monte Carlo Masters in April on clay. Milos Raonic, still only twenty-three, has struggled in the past on grass, and is perhaps less mobile than Kyrgios. Though more than a match for his more inexperienced opponent when it comes to power, Kyrgios – confident and composed after his success over Nadal – would seem in the better position to progress.
The two World Cup quarter-finals which will take place on Friday are highly alluring and hard to call. France and Germany last met at a World Cup in Mexico in 1986, when West Germany progressed to meet Argentina in the final with a 2-0 victory. Both sides laboured through the last round. France beat Nigeria 2-0, with Paul Pogba heading in from a corner with ten minutes remaining, followed by a Joseph Yobo own goal in the second minute of injury time.Ā Having impressed in their opening two matches, scoring eight goals against Honduras and Switzerland, France have lost their fluidity, with Karim Benzema marginalised or simply failing to assert himself to the same degree, and some of their decision making in the final third against Nigeria severely lacking.
Likewise, Germany’s faults and frailties have become increasingly apparent sinceĀ their 4-0 defeat of Portugal in their opening group game. Two goals in the thirty minutes of extra time on Monday night against an impressive Algeria surely saved Joachim Low from losing the job he has now held for eight years. It is increasingly difficult to view Low as anything more than a poor imitator of other people’s ideas: building on the foundations laid, for better or worse, by Jurgen Klinsmann, Low has in recent years taken indiscriminately from Jurgen Klopp at Borussia Dortmund and from Jupp Heynckes and now Pep Guardiola at Bayern Munich. Moving away from the 4-2-3-1 which has been characteristic of Germany under his leadership, the 4-3-3 which Germany have utilised so far this tournament does not appear to be working from anyone’s perspective. Mirroring Guardiola by playing Philipp Lahm as a defensive midfielder rather than at full-back, the aim is to provide defensive nous and defensive movement in the centre of the pitch. However, Germany’s lack of alternatives at full-back have seen Low field centre-backs across the back four. Against Algeria, a high defensive line exposed a lack of pace in the defence, while even playing high up the pitch, Germany’s converted centre-backs did little to provide width or attacking penetration. For all of his defensive attributes, Lahm would surely offer more to the team playing in his accustomed position.
Playing with a front three, headed by Thomas Muller, rather than with three attacking midfielders behind a central striker or false nine, Germany appear to lack incisive attacking movement. Where Muller and Mesut Ozil used to interchange so effectively and so enticingly behind Miroslav Klose,Ā while Lukas Podolski or Marco Reus added width and directness down the left flank, now Ozil seems a marginal figure and there is less running between the lines and beyond the last line of the opposition defence. Germany may well possessĀ the most talented squad in the tournament, and from 2006 have reachedĀ four major semi-finals in a row without managing to go any further. They should be expected to progress against France. The midfield battle, presumably pitting Pogba, Cabaye, and Matuidi against Lahm, Kroos, and Schweinsteiger, will be intriguing to watch, but Germany despite their problems still suggest the more cohesive team, and cherish in Muller a more reliable goalscorer.
Inspired by James Rodriguez and Cuadrado, Colombia have become the chosen side of many neutrals. They have scored eleven goals so far in this World Cup – one goal behind the Netherlands’ tournament-leading twelve – with Rodriguez’s volley against UruguayĀ the tournament’s most beautiful goal, and they have a fixed and capable defensive unit. Brazil, owing to a lack of talent and to the shortcomings of their defenders, have stocked their central midfield with runners rather than with players who can control the tempo of play, and in the attack they look reliant on Neymar. On form, Colombia should be favourites going into the later kickoff on Friday; they can pose Brazil more problems – with more movement from deep – than Chile, who lost out in the last round by the narrowest of margins.
Both Argentina and Belgium required extra time yesterday to see off Switzerland and the United States. Despite being strongly tipped before the tournament began – Argentina as potential winners, with Lionel Messi expected to shine after an indifferent close to the season with Barcelona; Belgium as everybody’s preferred dark horses owing to the establishment of so many Belgians across Europe, but particularly in the Premier League over the last several years – both sides have stuttered through the competition, winning all of their matches thus far, but always by single-goal margins and without impressive performances to bolster these results. Romelu Lukaku’s legs were the difference for Belgium against a resilient USA; while an excellent run and passĀ by Messi spurred Argentina to their win. Argentina will go into Saturday’s match as favourites, but only minutely on the back of barely distinguishable form.
As with France and Germany, so too the Netherlands have faltered after enjoying a perfect start to the World Cup, beating reigning champions Spain 5-1. After a close-run victory over Australia and two late goals against Chile, they were two minutes from going out of the competition in the last round against Mexico, before Wesley Sneijder struck and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar converted expertly from a correctly awarded injury-time penalty. Despite Sneijder’s contribution, his first in the tournament; some eye-catching performances from Daley Blind; and the concerted and effective use of Memphis Depay from the substitute’s bench; still the strength of this Dutch side rests heavily on Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie. Robben in particular has been exceptional, proving himself one of the world’s elite players, and with him the Netherlands should have too much for Costa Rica – defensively sound but also lively in the attack in their first two group games, but having to endure an hour with only ten men against Greece before triumphing on penalties.
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Wednesday afternoon update: Beginning earlier than I anticipated after two breezy women’s quarter-finals – which resulted in victories for Eugenie Bouchard and Simona Halep – by the time I published the above piece, the first men’s quarter-finals were already underway. Grigor Dimitrov had just about taken the first set against Andy Murray; and only an hour and forty minutes later, he came away with a comfortable three-set victory, 1-6, 6-7, 2-6, to reach his first Grand Slam semi-final. Meanwhile, Novak DjokovicĀ has just fallen behind against Marin Cilic, down two sets to one as Cilic takes the third set tie-break. As things stand, as far as my predictions or suppositions go, I am also behind, 0-1.Ā Wawrinka leads Federer 3-1 on Centre Court.
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Thursday morning thoughts: Djokovic turned his match round and beat Cilic over five sets, 6-1, 3-6, 6-7, 6-2, 6-2, to prevent another big upset. Federer, already a break down, went on to lose the first set, but he won the next three to progress 6-3, 6-7, 4-6, 4-6. In the last quarter-final of the day, Raonic beat Kyrgios 6-7, 6-2, 6-4, 7-6.
Djokovic had appeared to be progressing serenely through the tournament, steadily building form and momentum, and comfortable in the previous round as he beat Tsonga over three sets. The two sets Cilic took from him yesterday will certainly provide Cilic with much encouragement, his increased aggression paying dividends; but Djokovic seemed to loseĀ impetus after a straightforward first set – something which is becoming characteristic of his game, and so far removed from the player he was a couple of seasons ago. In a similar fashion, but more markedly, Andy Murray’s level has dropped significantly since his return from back surgery, and Dimitrov needed to be strong and steady from the back of the court rather than particularly bold or imaginative yesterday to beat him. Djokovic still has the tools to beat Dimitrov decisively in their semi-final, to be played on Friday: despite his observing to the contrary, it is Djokovic, not Dimitrov, who remains the man to beat: but Dimitrov has grown in stature over the past several months, andĀ has the all-round game to challenge on all surfaces over the long term.
In the Wawrinka vs. Federer match, the tie-break at the end of the second set proved fairly decisive. Wawrinka appeared to be suffering several minor aches and ailments, and called for the doctor at the end of the second set; he still clung on through a particularly tense final game, which saw Federer serving and spurning four match points, and saving a break point before securing the victory. He progresses to his thirty-fifth Grand Slam semi-final.
Faced with Milos Raonic’s serving power and consistency, Nick Kyrgios lacked the same conviction and resoluteness which served himĀ against Rafa Nadal. The match was more one-sided than the scoreline suggests: the statistics show that Raonic won 144 points to Kyrgios’s 111, whereas in his four-set defeat of Nadal, Kyrgios won 144 points to Nadal’s 137. Where Kyrgios had served with an average first-serve speed of 120 mph against Nadal, winning 83% of points on his first serve, against Raonic his average speed dropped to 116%, and he won only 67% of his first-serve points. Raonic meanwhile hit 39 aces to Kyrgios’s 15; his average first-serve speed was at 121 mph, and he won 88% of points on his first serve; even his second serve kept an average speed of 107 mph. Raonic returned effectively, hit more than double Kyrgios’s winners from the back of the court, and also came to the net frequently, winning points at the net more often than not. He will pose Federer a different sort of challenge: one that appears even somewhat old fashioned, built around a big serve, eschewing the long rallying which has dominated men’s tennis over the last five or six years; but carried out with the sort of precision which Raonic showed against Kyrgios, it is a style of play which is supremely difficult to beat.
